Behind the Price Drops
Posted October 29, 2008 in Greening China, Saving Wildlife and Wild Places, The Media and the Environment
One of the benefits of a long train commute is that you get to read headlines from all sorts of papers as my fellow commuters settle in (yes, I know "benefit" is a bit of reach). Anyway, given the steady drop in gas prices in recent days, a headline I saw this morning from the Financial Times came as a bit of a surprise: "World will struggle to meet oil demand."
The article, also conveniently posted on the FT's website, notes that the "first authoritative public study" says that output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously believed. According to the study -- due to be published next month by the International Energy Agency -- the annual rate of output decline is 9.1 percent. (To be fair, the IEA homepage carries a statement expressing "dismay" that the report was "made made public without our input and verification."
But according to the FT, the report's "findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand," the FT wrote. "All the increase in oil demand until 2030 comes from emerging countries, while consumption in developed countries declines."
According to the paper, the IEA report will also warn that the world needed to make a "significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production".
Investments? Yes. In oil field production? Hell no.
The report affirms the growing belief by economists, government officials and other business leaders that we cannot drill or dig our way to a secure energy future.
We need to instead invest in clean energy alternatives, alternatives that already exist and are only awaiting leadership from worldwide businesses and governments to be brought to scale. Last month's last-minute renewal of alternative energy tax credits was a huge boost but now we need our leaders invest in what New York Times columnist Tom Friedman calls ET -- energy technology.
Opinion research shows us that the public believes that green energy is real and with appropriate investment can meet the world's growing demand for energy. We'll soon learn whether a new administration and Congress will recognize this growing force and get with the program.
If they don't, the report from the International Energy Agency suggests that someday soon, we'll look back with great nostalgia on the days when gasoline was "only" $5 a gallon.
