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ACES Puts US and World On Safer Temperature Path

ACES Puts US and World On Safer Temperature Path

Duke University just released an analysis of the impact that ACES will have on global temperature, factoring in the impact that US leadership will have on the rest of the world. As many recognize, the only way to get serious global efforts to cut emissions moving is for the US to make clear its own commitment.

The Duke study concludes that ACES can help drive a global policy that would stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations below 450 parts per million and limit global temperatures increases to less than 2 degrees above 1990 levels.

What will that do as far as global warming impacts go? Here's a synopsis of the escalating impacts of global warming, based on IPCC reports. You can see for yourself what global warming effects the ACES bill will help us avoid:

The bullets ACES will help us dodge: global GDP losses of up to 5%; extinction of 40% or more of the world's species; decline of global food production; and so on.

Amidst all the posts regarding the economic benefits of the ACES bill, its worth remembering that it will put us on track to avoid the worst effects of global warming.  

Tags:
americancleanenergyandsecurityact, climatechange, energyandclimate2009, globalwarming, globalwarmingsolutions, waxman, waxmanmarkey

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Comments

Woody PfisterJun 26 2009 05:13 PM

Has anyone at NRDC read this pork stuffed, lobbied to death bill? Would you really support it if you had, or do you owe Waxman this much?

Dr. James SingmasterJun 26 2009 09:01 PM

Boy it seems that Duke scientists and just about all others in the environmental groups including NRDC do not want to face the fact of the momentums of the energy and GHG overloads already in the biosphere. I advise readers to check the New Scientist Environment online web for the June 21 posting on sea levels by 4,000 AD to see what the momentums are calculated to be doing over the next 2 millennia. And who knows whether the oceans will be surviving with all the wastes getting into them from the rising waters and population. Dr. J. Singmaster

John LiffeeJun 29 2009 12:01 PM

Mr... um... Pfister:

For the love of god, man, please slowly back away from the vacuous right-wing talking points you've been regurgitating and go stick your head in the sand somewhere, where it belongs.

As for Mr. Singmaster and like-minded folks who purport to care deeply about curbing climate change, but think we should take our ball and go home in a huff because this bill is far from perfect: you just don't get it. Getting to 450 (or 350) ppm CO2 is a world war -- a cold one for the moment, but hot wars may well break out all over as the impacts of climate change begin to really pinch. And hardly any wars are settled in one clean battle (much less a global war). We're in for a complex matrix of campaigns across many fronts that will grind on for decades.

Pete Altman is right, in this post -- this bill has to pass; as Altman says, it will begin to shift momentum around the world, energizing those who're on board and taking a lot of wind out of the sails of the "skeptics." It will also begin building experience and infrastructure (economic, political, technological, physical, legal, and cultural) without which there's little hope of progress toward the goal.

ACES is nothing if not a perfect demonstration of the truth of our sausage-factory political system. Look closely at the process and you'll find all sorts of ugly business that goes into the passage of any major bill. 'Twas ever thus, no matter what the issue. It's pathetically naive to think things could be different.

Groups like NRDC and UCS are toiling on an intensely complex and well-thought-out long-haul legislative strategy. For well over a decade, massive resources have been devoted to developing this strategy and growing the capacity and political support that will be needed to move it ahead. These groups know exactly what compromises they can make without torpedoing the long-term objectives. And they are absolutely willing to play realpolitik hardball -- tirelessly, year after year -- tightening the screws on emissions bit by bit, in increments tiny and not-so-tiny, determined to use our maddeningly frustrating political process to squeeze out victories in important battles and to eventually win the war. By any means necessary. In my view, this courage and stoicism in the face of unpleasant work is the only moral position that's possible. We owe it to all the generations of humanity past and future -- we have to pick up the shovel and accept the work that has to be done.

Congratulations to all those responsible for the House win. Keep it up.

W Stanley, Ph.D.Jun 29 2009 04:26 PM

It worries me that the bill strips the EPA's ability to regulate GHGs (for any reason related to global warming). Given the uncertainties about how a bill of this complexity will actually work, what unforeseen perverse incentives it may create, and how squishy the flexible mechanisms will turn out to be (tree farms can burn down after all, long after the carbon credits are sold and the $$ are in the bank), it would be far preferable for the executive to retain the ability to regulate GHGs as a Plan-B. To flush that away without high confidence about how this bill is going to work could be disastrous.

Several people have commented that this bill MUST pass. I agree. But it also has to work effectively, and that remains to be seen.

I hope NRDC will work very hard to strengthen the bill in the Senate, and hope for something viable out of conference. If this is the best we can do, I'm pretty worried for my kids' future.

Ken DonnellyJun 30 2009 05:17 AM

Mr Liffee is so right. While democracy is a great system it has real cost and difficulty. And whether on the extreme right (as in republicans or the NO party) or the left (Bill Maher or others who want to only play their game irrespective of the fact the majority - back to the cost of democracy - takes longer to get there) the modern and mostly American tendancy to not play unless you get YOUR WAY is disconcerting.

So real (as in the real and hard way democracy works) kudos to the NRDC. If you read the sausage, as in the first completely appalling corrupted EPA support for the Bush (completely mislabeled, almost criminally in every sense) energy and climate bill, we've come a lomg way baby! if not to Nirvana, and the first real step is the hardest and most important.

For balance and as above would be dismissed by FOX and Republican NO (to almost anything progressive, in the dictionary meaning (not their perversion)of that word), some things not addressed (and dismissed on the liberal side) such as nuclear IFR or existing cleaner coal technology (as opposed to supposed to be developed magic bullet technologies, the favorite delay tactic of the Republicans) as part of the overall answer should also be addressed in future refinements.

Again kudos to the NRDC, a really public interest lobby group, for their great work. Last hope is that the bankruptcy of the Republican NO machine on climate on health care etc is (primarily because of the non polarized way the Obama government is bringing that pesky majority along) being seen for what it is. Ironic also that if the Maher type liberal wing had what they wanted a more polarizing "push" legislation approach by the administration this would not be the case.

So there is real hope these days (not as audacious as it should be to some) but hopefully a sustainable hope on all fronts (health, economy and climate) and the veil of blindness that seemed to engulf America for the last 8 years is finally being replaced by the America we can all be proud of. And for those of us who consider that we are citizens of thw world (in a broader sense than narrow minded Newts can understand) the world can also be proud of us.

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