Black Hole Swallows MIT
- Laurie Johnson
- Chief Economist, Climate Center, Washington, DC
- Blog | About
- Posted May 13, 2009 in Solving Global Warming
Opponents of climate legislation are living in a parallel universe where the value of pollution allowances disappears into a black hole, energy markets are currently perfect, and the impacts of global warming are costless. On this side of the worm hole in the real world, if we hold polluters accountable for their dangerous global warming pollution, consumers will see clean energy incentives and rebates, energy efficiency upgrades that will lower their energy bills, and benefits of acting to curb global warming that will far exceed the costs.
Despite being corrected on several occasions by the author, obstructionists are still clinging to the fraudulent claim that an MIT study shows climate legislation costing American households over $3,900 per year. The figure is obtained by adding together two numbers from an MIT study of a Senate bill, the Climate Security Act, done two years ago. The first figure is the average annual market value of carbon allowances per household ($3,128), and the second the amount of investment needed ($800 per household per year) to reduce emissions to required levels (e.g. money spent on renewable energy, and more efficient buildings and appliances). Asserting that climate legislation will cost households the sum of these two numbers, $3,928, is simply wrong. And the opposition knows it. Below I summarize the key points:
1) The market value of carbon allowances is not a cost. The $3,128 is the average annual value per household of the carbon pollution allowances, but that says nothing about who pays that $3,128 or who gets it. Any climate legislation passed by Congress is likely to reflect the proposal put forth by the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), a consortium of major businesses and non-profit environmental organizations. Under the USCAP blueprint, regulated utilities will receive about half of the available allowances,[1] and they will be required to allocate all of them for public benefit purposes, on energy efficiency and rebates for their customers. Another portion of the $3,128 represents costs firms in trade-exposed energy intensive sectors can't pass on to consumers. This small sector of the economy (roughly 3% of gross domestic product in the U.S. and less than 6% of its direct emissions) will be compensated for these costs in exchange for improving energy efficiency in their firms and keeping jobs at home, ultimately increasing firms' productivity, competitiveness, and profits in the long run. Remaining funds will go toward some combination of clean energy development, forest preservation, adaptation, and direct consumer rebates. Thus, contrary to opposition claims that the $3,928 is a tax for a whole new wave of government expansion, virtually all of the carbon allowances will be used to help transition people to a low carbon economy, in the process creating new clean energy jobs, reducing the amount of energy we need to run our economy, and ending our expensive and dangerous dependence on foreign oil.
2) EPA's Analysis of the Waxman-Markey bill shows that it is very affordable. The $800 estimate of the annual cost of reducing emissions is not an analysis of the Waxman-Markey bill currently under consideration in Congress. Analysis of this bill by EPA finds a modest $98-$140 per household per year through 2050. This is a very reasonable amount, orders of magnitude smaller than other investments we make in our future, such as education, retirement, and life insurance. Moreover, at the same time, median household income is expected to increase by $1,208-1,993 per year[2] over the same period, twelve to fourteen times the $98-$140 investment cost.
3) MIT, EPA, and even opponents' studies all agree that climate legislation will not disrupt economic growth. The same MIT study projects an average annual increase in median household income of $3,188,[3] and GDP tripling in size by 2050, hardly a prescription of hardship and economic collapse, and much larger than the estimated cost of reducing emissions.
4) Energy experts recognize that we could reduce our energy use by 30% at no net cost. When we increase our efficiency, we save money on our energy bills, and create and support millions of jobs. Efficient appliances and buildings don't get built by themselves. Nor do wind farms and solar arrays.
5) Inaction is not a viable option. More important than any of the above, what the opposition is really saying is that it doesn't believe in science-which forecasts very high and potentially catastrophic climate destruction costs if nothing is done to reduce emissions. The opposition views reducing emissions as an optional investment in our future, one that wouldn't bring any critical benefits. In reality, protecting the planet is not a discretionary outlay-and it's a bargain at $98-$140 per year.
No matter how you slice it, making polluters responsible for their emissions has benefits that are likely to far exceed the costs. Claiming that pollution allowances worth $3,128 per household mysteriously vanish into a black hole is dishonest and a disservice to all Americans. We deserve to get out of this recession, and onto a clean energy growth path that will create millions of jobs, reduce our dangerous dependence on oil, and limit the most destructive effects of global warming. Let's get to work!
[1] In order to make up for lost tax revenues elsewhere and cost of living adjustments to social programs, the Treasury receives roughly 25% of any allowances it sells. Because it offsets a decline in government revenues elsewhere, it does not represent a new tax.
[2] Estimated by growing median household income by the growth rate in consumption.
[3] Estimated by growing median household income by the growth rate in consumption.
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Comments
Sean Wilson — May 13 2009 11:36 AM
I'm all for sustainability and being green, however, the whole concept of carbon taxes and carbon allowances is simply absurd and putting additional burdens on people that is tantamount to punishing everyone for the actions of the unethical, lazy, morally decrepit persons in a society. It is inherently wrong.
Our entire society is designed wrong, and now certain sectors want to punish families for adapting to the lifestyle the government has forced upon them to pay for its inability to lead, regulate and spend wisely. I'm all about finding ways to integrate and utilize all available renewable resources, and I've been green well before it became fashionable. I've made sacrifices, put forth effort, grow gardens, ride my mountain bike. Why should I be victimized with a higher cost of living, inflation, and economics that will impact everyone around me--and thus my personal life and well being--because other people were irresponsible, inept, lazy, uneducated, uncaring or a myriad other things?
The same academics and politicians debating the how and why of taxing people they have put into economic despair, global food shortages and environmental hazard are now telling us they know how to save us from what they screwed up in the first place with their lack of foresight, responsibility, creativity and ability. Why not just do away with automobiles and go back to horseback and walking as a mode of transportation?
Oh, I know, the same academics, politicians and wealthy elites don't make money off actually being green to the core and creating a society that is truly sustainable. And all the lazy, irresponsible, uncaring, fat, cowardly types who need their air conditioned cars to commute to the cubicle at the job that makes them miserable (but allows them to watch reality shows on cable and gorge on fast food) would rather pay a small tax and punish everyone else instead of working to create real change that doesn't make wage slaves out of future generations or create indebtedness to foreign governments.
The simple fact is we could reduce our pollution rates far faster if our government weren't bailing out morally decrepit corporations, bankers and speculators. We could reduce our carbon emissions if we quit buying foreign oil and forced society to use our own wisely. An executive order or Congressional action resulting in a law that simply made gasoline powered autos a threat to national security (energy is of prime importance in national security matters after all) and said after "X" date, manufacturers can only produce hydrogen, solar, electric or compressed air powered vehicles the entire issue would be solved.
But no one in government nor academia has the spine to simply do the right thing. Instead, it's easier to wring more blood out of the poor of this nation by taxing everything possible, down to the last cow and pig.
Sustainability loses out when it gets to a particular place. When you push people into a corner, they fight--because we are, after all, animals. More than 37 million Americans live beneath the poverty line, and minimum wage increases have been almost non-existent for the past three decades while Congress and government employees have been getting raises to the tun of tens of thousands of dollars annually. The people are tired of it, I'm tired of it.
And what gall to tax access to, output of, or anything else related to one of the building blocks of the universe. I can't imagine anything that sounds more inane or tyrannical.
The real cost of any carbon tax is that it is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for many. Millions of Americans are fed up, and several states are already talking secession. I think a carbon tax would be a perfectly ironic and fitting excuse for the next civil or revolutionary war. As a veteran who fought in the Gulf War, I for one would gladly defend against domestic enemies--some of which are in the halls of government and academia both.
How about, instead of taxing the people, you tax the profits of oil companies who have created the majority of the environmentally damaging lifestyle/society we must exist in? They reported record profits in the last several quarters as We the People lost homes, jobs, self-respect, loved ones, families, relationships, lives and so much more, after all.
Environmentalists and liberals, conservatives and academics...they are all alienating those of us who are moderates. Strangely, they're even starting to alienate those on the far left and right. If I'm going to pay taxes on emissions, and be able to feel good about whatever I do, then why the hell not go buy an old Ford Bronco that gets 10 MPG? It's a heck of a lot more fun than any Prius. I'd be doing my part, after all, right?
I don't see why I bothered to put forth all the effort I have over the years. I should have just sent the government another $100 per year...
Travis, Family Resources (is a link) — May 13 2009 07:03 PM
The paradigm that created the industrial revolution is changing. The moral system that has enslaved mankind in a greedy drunkenness and lust for power has done its duty.
We will now begin witnessing evidence of the last cycle called "ethics". It has begun and will end The Old World Corporatocracy.
However, prepare your hearts, the death of The Old World Order will be violent.