Kevin Mo's Blog: Moving Beyond Oil

Unwavering Determination: Low-Carbon Reconstruction after Earthquake

2009-09-30T10:18:47Z

Ever imagine an airport that serves only one route with only one flight that only operates on Monday, Wednesday and Friday? Welcome to Guangyuan in Sichuan Province, a city with 2200-plus years of history. Situated on a flattened top of a mountain, the Guangyuan Airport only serves one flight between Beijing and Guangyuan on three weekdays per week. You cannot fly to anywhere else from this airport.

(The Guangyuan Airport)

When I first landed at the airport, I was amazed at the simplicity and tininess of the airport. Two hours before, I had just took off from the splendid Beijing Capital Airport. Far beyond my imagination, the Guangyuan Airport was more like a greyhound bus station in comparison. Although I had been told of how underdeveloped Guangyuan is, it still took me some time to realize the reality. With an area of about 16,300 square kilometers and a population of 3.1 million people, Guangyuan's per capita GDP is only one third of China's national average with 80 percent of Guangyuan's population engaged in agriculture. During the earthquake that struck Sichuan on May 12, 2008, nearly 90 percent of the urban and rural structures in Guangyuan were damaged to various degrees, and more than 2.4 million people were affected. For example, in one of Guangyuan's counties, Qingchuan, many buildings were completely flattened and 250,000 people became homeless overnight. While GDP growth rates in Guangyuan reached 13.5 percent in both 2006 and 2007, the 2008 GDP growth rate was reduced sharply to 3.3 percent due to the destruction caused by the earthquake. Guangyuan's direct economic loss from the earthquake amounts to RMB 120 billion (about $17 billion USD).

(A damaged building under repair)

Bumpy and muddy, the road to Guangyuan city was an instant reminder of the catastrophic impact that the earthquake had last year in this area. Facing a massive post-earthquake reconstruction challenge, the city government is aiming to seize the opportunity to transform Guangyuan into a low carbon city. Personally, I believe, it takes just as much unwavering determination for the Guangyuan city government to brave the challenge of reconstructing the city on a green plan as it does for the Obama administration to redirect the American economy during a crisis towards a greener economy.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a national think tank for climate change and sustainable development, was commissioned by a UK grant to conduct a one-year low-carbon reconstruction city planning project in this severely damaged city. The outcome of this project will serve as a roadmap for China's 600-plus small and medium cities on how to mitigate and adapt to climate change while maintaining economic growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization. Viewing this as a very intriguing challenge, I accepted an invitation to serve as an advisor to the team, and flew to Guangyuan for an on-site survey with the CASS team.

On the day I arrived in Guangyuan, world leaders happened to be gathering at the UN to reiterate their hopes to reach a climate agreement in Copenhagen. Chinese President Hu Jintao announced that China would reduce its carbon intensity, though no specific number was provided. No matter what number China eventually sets as the target, it is really up to local governments in places like Guangyuan to implement and fulfill the targets. I cannot say enough about the importance of the CASS' pilot project in Guangyuan. While many would focus their efforts on China's economic centers, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, CASS chose Guangyuan because it is more representative of China's small and medium sized cities that are going through an early phase of industrialization, experiencing fast city expansion and population explosion, and facing huge environment and energy challenges. How to balance the needs of economic growth and the pressures of GHG emissions reduction is a critical question to be answered in this research.

In its Industrial Park Development Plan for 2009-2015, Guangyuan made it clear that clean energy and low carbon technologies would be the driving force. Since natural gas is abundant in Guangyuan, the government decided to encourage all industries to switch from coal to natural gas, which would significantly reduce GHG emissions. In addition, in rural Longtan County, one of the four counties in Guangyuan, all households have installed biogas plants. This year, all biogas plants alone in Guangyuan will cut carbon dioxide emissions by 6.5 million tons. Guangyuan plans to construct biogas plants for at least 60 percent of all rural households by 2015.

But all of the above measures alone are not enough to put Guangyuan on a low-carbon path.. To expedite post-earthquake economy recovery and industrialization, Guangyuan established an "express lane" for approving industrial reconstruction projects, which simplified application procedures and lifted environmental restrictions. As a result, many high pollutant and energy-intensive industries migrated to Guangyuan from developed areas. With abundant resources and cheap energy, it is likely that Guangyuan could be on an unsustainable path unless a low-carbon development framework is put in place.

(An industrial park supported by Zhejiang Province with energy-intensive textile plants, aluminum manufacturing plants, etc.)

Required by the Chinese central government, Guangyuan needs to cut down its energy intensity by 20 percent from its 2005 level by 2010. However, Guangyuan only managed to cut down its energy intensity by a total of 8.04 percent by the end of 2008, achieving merely 40 percent of the goal in three years. For 2009 and 2010, Guangyuan needs to cut down 6.5 percent each year to meet the goal, which is a very daunting task.

For the construction industry, only structural durability to sustain another earthquake was emphasized in the reconstruction efforts. Energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in the reconstruction, however, were not given the attention they deserve. Based on the Guangyuan Post-earthquake Urban and Rural Housing Reconstruction Plan, 12 million square meter buildings will be built by 2010. A lock-in inefficiency will be tremendous if we don't move quickly to make appropriate modifications to the plan, which will begin implementation soon.

The CASS project will provide recommendations to revise several of Guangyuan's reconstruction efforts, including: 1) the Post-earthquake Reconstruction Master Plan, 2) Reconstruction Urban Planning, 3) the Urban & rural Housing Reconstruction Plan, 4) the Industrial Development Plan and 5) Policy recommendation for Guangyuan's 12th Five Year Plan.

Three case studies will be conducted, including 1) a low-carbon community, 2) low-carbon buildings, and 3) an assessment and policy design of renewable energy for rural areas.

On the 2nd day of my trip, I gave a half-day workshop to Guangyuan's construction and urban planning officials, researchers and developers. The workshop focused on six areas:

1. Building and climate change
2. How to use local materials for buildings
3. Building energy label
4. Smart growth
5. Low carbon community design
6. Case study on sustainable urban planning

I'll continue to blog my research findings down the road.

A damaged building under repair

Go with wind: China to dramatically boost its wind power capacity, again

2009-07-21T10:36:59Z

China keeps revising its renewable energy target for 2020--so frequently and dramatically that just when you feel you finally managed to track all the target numbers and to put them on paper, the numbers become history. China first announced its 2020 target for renewable energy in 2007, and then revised the numbers in May 2009. With the stimulus package injected into renewable energy investment, China is now reported to be revising the 2020 target plan again, which is even more ambitious (as shown below). It should be noted that China interchangeably uses the terms "alternative energy" and "renewable energy"; its portfolio includes large amounts of hydropower and nuclear power.

.	Installed Capacity by the end of 2008	The 2020 Target set in 2007	The 2020 Target revised in May 2009	Proposed plan to revise the 2020 Target
Wind	12.17 gW	30 gW	100 gW	150 gW
Solar	140 mW	1.8 gW	10 gW+	20 gW
Nuclear	9.1 gW	40 gW	60~75 gW	86 gW
Total power supply	793 gW	1000 gW		1400~1500 gW

In the newly proposed 2020 renewable energy plan, wind power would become dominant, accounting for 10 percent of the total power supply and increasing from an initial 30 gigawatts (gW), which was less than nuclear power (40 gW), to 150 gW. This would be double the nuclear power target of 86 gW. Solar energy capacity would also be significantly increased, from the original 1.8 gW, to 20 gW, 142 times the installed capacity at the end of 2008.

To show it's not just a numbers game with the renewable energy target, a couple of weeks ago, China began construction on its first 10 gW wind power station in Jiuquan, Gansu province. The installed capacity will be increased to 20 gW by 2020 and eventually reach 40 gW, which would almost double the installed capacity of the gigantic Three Gorges Dam-the world's largest hydro-electric power station, with a potential total installed capacity at 22.4 gW. Gansu is now boasting "Three Gorges of Wind Farms," with a total investment predicted to be more than 120 billion yuan ($17.6 billion); the newly estimated total investment in Three Gorges Dam is about 180 billion yuan.

Of the 150 gW target by 2020, 30 gW will come from offshore wind farms. The largest offshore wind power project so far is the Donghai Bridge Wind Farm in Shanghai--the most fascinating wind farm, in my opinion. The Donghai Bridge is about 32.5 kilometers long, the longest in China. Wind turbines are being installed on both sides of the bridge. The total installed power capacity will reach 100 mW.

A Chinese research team has re-evaluated China's potential wind power resources and significantly increased its onshore wind power potential to 700~1,200 gW from the original forecast of 280 gW, which means wind power resources alone can meet the entire country's electricity demands. Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Inner Mongolia both boast more than 100 gW of wind energy resources. But there remains one big issue, similar to the one confronted by coal and natural gas industries: all the wind power resource--rich areas are thousands of kilometers away from high electricity demand areas. High voltage power lines are needed. In an effort to build a so-called Strong Smart Grid, China invested more in grids than in power generation last year.

China's total power capacity will be more than 900 gW in 2009, and will soon be close to what the U.S. has now--1,000 gW.

Beijing's High-Polluting Vehicle Phase-Out Plan Seems to be Working

2009-06-19T06:53:22Z

Air quality of Beijing was a focal point both before and during the Olympic Games. After the Olympics, the topic faded out of the media, but Beijing is still working hard to keep the sky blue. According to the Beijing Environment Protection Bureau, from January 1, 2009 to June 9, 2009, 81 percent of the days achieved an air quality of Grade II or better. As a matter of fact, Beijing residents are enjoying the best air quality for the same period of time since year 2000, partly thanks to the city's high-polluting vehicle phase-out plan.

The Ministry of Environment Protection has categorized air quality into five grades. Grade I is the best, with an Air Pollutant Index (API) of less than 50, and Grade II is good, with an index ranging from 51 to 100. High-polluting vehicles are a major source of air pollutants in Beijing. By the end of 2008, the 353,800 yellow-mark cars accounted for only 10 percent of the total cars in Beijing, but emitted half of the total pollutants by vehicles in Beijing.

In addition to the yellow label vehicle phase-out incentives, Beijing has provided discount car loans of up to two years to public service driving contractors who purchase green label cars in 2009, based on the purchase date.

Jan. 1 to June 30, 2009: 2-year discount car loan
Jul. 1 to Sept. 30, 2009: 1.5-year discount car loan
Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2009: 1-year discount car loan

The Beijing Transportation Bureau even gave an example of how a car owner could best benefit from the campaign. If a driving contractor purchased his heavy truck for 300,000 yuan ($43,920) in 2004 and traded in it by June 30, 2009, he would receive 15,000 yuan ($2,196). He would save additional 36,000 yuan ($5,270) on a car loan if he purchased a green-label car of a similar model. The savings would total 51,000 yuan ($7,460), more than one-sixth of the car's value.

Still, the incentive seems unattractive to most owners. It is estimated that to date (June 9, 2009), Beijing has only disbursed incentives to 31,871 yellow-label vehicle owners, close to 10 percent of the stock. But most yellow-label cars have disappeared. It's the "forbidden zone" that makes the difference. Most owners choose to sell their yellow-label cars to secondhand car dealerships, which then sell the cars to the neighboring cities that have less stringent emission regulations. That is, most high-polluting cars are not traded in, but spread around the city.

In addition to the stringent regulations, Beijing continues to add cleaner buses to its public transportation system. Beijing owns 4,000 more natural gas buses than any other city in the world, and will continue to increase that number to 5,000 by 2012.

Beijing also has set a rule that forces each car off the street for one weekday. For example, if its license number ends in 1 or 6, a car can't be on the street on Monday; this keeps 20 percent of cars at home on weekdays. But some would argue that rich people can buy a second car just for use during that one weekday. Beijing has also moved most high-polluting industries out of the area and has increased its forest coverage to 36.5 percent.

A couple of days ago, the Beijing Transportation Commission released a green public transportation initiative for 2009-2015. Some highlights are as follows:

By 2015, Beijing's daily public transportation (buses and subways) capacity will be 25 million passenger-trips, including 15 million by bus and 10 million by subway.
45 percent of passenger-trips in the metro area will be by public transportation.
The city will establish approximately 1,000 bicycle-rental stations, with a total of 50,000 bicycles available for rent. Walk-only and bicycle-only street lanes will be opened across the metro area.
The public-transportation-only lane will be 450 kilometers long.
90 percent of public transportation passengers in the metro area will walk less than 500 meters to the nearest station.

Although the API shows better air quality of Beijing, it should be noted that the API currently only measures the concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), suspended particulates (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3). It was reported that China is considering including suspended particulates (PM2.5), which is more damaging to the respiratory system than PM10, in the API.

My colleague Alex Wang and his team just released a milestone pollution index, PITI (Pollution Information Transparency Index), which monitors how 113 Chinese cities perform in terms of disclosure of pollution information.