Kevin Mo's Blog: Curbing Pollution

Unwavering Determination: Low-Carbon Reconstruction after Earthquake

2009-09-30T10:18:47Z

Ever imagine an airport that serves only one route with only one flight that only operates on Monday, Wednesday and Friday? Welcome to Guangyuan in Sichuan Province, a city with 2200-plus years of history. Situated on a flattened top of a mountain, the Guangyuan Airport only serves one flight between Beijing and Guangyuan on three weekdays per week. You cannot fly to anywhere else from this airport.

(The Guangyuan Airport)

When I first landed at the airport, I was amazed at the simplicity and tininess of the airport. Two hours before, I had just took off from the splendid Beijing Capital Airport. Far beyond my imagination, the Guangyuan Airport was more like a greyhound bus station in comparison. Although I had been told of how underdeveloped Guangyuan is, it still took me some time to realize the reality. With an area of about 16,300 square kilometers and a population of 3.1 million people, Guangyuan's per capita GDP is only one third of China's national average with 80 percent of Guangyuan's population engaged in agriculture. During the earthquake that struck Sichuan on May 12, 2008, nearly 90 percent of the urban and rural structures in Guangyuan were damaged to various degrees, and more than 2.4 million people were affected. For example, in one of Guangyuan's counties, Qingchuan, many buildings were completely flattened and 250,000 people became homeless overnight. While GDP growth rates in Guangyuan reached 13.5 percent in both 2006 and 2007, the 2008 GDP growth rate was reduced sharply to 3.3 percent due to the destruction caused by the earthquake. Guangyuan's direct economic loss from the earthquake amounts to RMB 120 billion (about $17 billion USD).

(A damaged building under repair)

Bumpy and muddy, the road to Guangyuan city was an instant reminder of the catastrophic impact that the earthquake had last year in this area. Facing a massive post-earthquake reconstruction challenge, the city government is aiming to seize the opportunity to transform Guangyuan into a low carbon city. Personally, I believe, it takes just as much unwavering determination for the Guangyuan city government to brave the challenge of reconstructing the city on a green plan as it does for the Obama administration to redirect the American economy during a crisis towards a greener economy.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a national think tank for climate change and sustainable development, was commissioned by a UK grant to conduct a one-year low-carbon reconstruction city planning project in this severely damaged city. The outcome of this project will serve as a roadmap for China's 600-plus small and medium cities on how to mitigate and adapt to climate change while maintaining economic growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization. Viewing this as a very intriguing challenge, I accepted an invitation to serve as an advisor to the team, and flew to Guangyuan for an on-site survey with the CASS team.

On the day I arrived in Guangyuan, world leaders happened to be gathering at the UN to reiterate their hopes to reach a climate agreement in Copenhagen. Chinese President Hu Jintao announced that China would reduce its carbon intensity, though no specific number was provided. No matter what number China eventually sets as the target, it is really up to local governments in places like Guangyuan to implement and fulfill the targets. I cannot say enough about the importance of the CASS' pilot project in Guangyuan. While many would focus their efforts on China's economic centers, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, CASS chose Guangyuan because it is more representative of China's small and medium sized cities that are going through an early phase of industrialization, experiencing fast city expansion and population explosion, and facing huge environment and energy challenges. How to balance the needs of economic growth and the pressures of GHG emissions reduction is a critical question to be answered in this research.

In its Industrial Park Development Plan for 2009-2015, Guangyuan made it clear that clean energy and low carbon technologies would be the driving force. Since natural gas is abundant in Guangyuan, the government decided to encourage all industries to switch from coal to natural gas, which would significantly reduce GHG emissions. In addition, in rural Longtan County, one of the four counties in Guangyuan, all households have installed biogas plants. This year, all biogas plants alone in Guangyuan will cut carbon dioxide emissions by 6.5 million tons. Guangyuan plans to construct biogas plants for at least 60 percent of all rural households by 2015.

But all of the above measures alone are not enough to put Guangyuan on a low-carbon path.. To expedite post-earthquake economy recovery and industrialization, Guangyuan established an "express lane" for approving industrial reconstruction projects, which simplified application procedures and lifted environmental restrictions. As a result, many high pollutant and energy-intensive industries migrated to Guangyuan from developed areas. With abundant resources and cheap energy, it is likely that Guangyuan could be on an unsustainable path unless a low-carbon development framework is put in place.

(An industrial park supported by Zhejiang Province with energy-intensive textile plants, aluminum manufacturing plants, etc.)

Required by the Chinese central government, Guangyuan needs to cut down its energy intensity by 20 percent from its 2005 level by 2010. However, Guangyuan only managed to cut down its energy intensity by a total of 8.04 percent by the end of 2008, achieving merely 40 percent of the goal in three years. For 2009 and 2010, Guangyuan needs to cut down 6.5 percent each year to meet the goal, which is a very daunting task.

For the construction industry, only structural durability to sustain another earthquake was emphasized in the reconstruction efforts. Energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in the reconstruction, however, were not given the attention they deserve. Based on the Guangyuan Post-earthquake Urban and Rural Housing Reconstruction Plan, 12 million square meter buildings will be built by 2010. A lock-in inefficiency will be tremendous if we don't move quickly to make appropriate modifications to the plan, which will begin implementation soon.

The CASS project will provide recommendations to revise several of Guangyuan's reconstruction efforts, including: 1) the Post-earthquake Reconstruction Master Plan, 2) Reconstruction Urban Planning, 3) the Urban & rural Housing Reconstruction Plan, 4) the Industrial Development Plan and 5) Policy recommendation for Guangyuan's 12th Five Year Plan.

Three case studies will be conducted, including 1) a low-carbon community, 2) low-carbon buildings, and 3) an assessment and policy design of renewable energy for rural areas.

On the 2nd day of my trip, I gave a half-day workshop to Guangyuan's construction and urban planning officials, researchers and developers. The workshop focused on six areas:

1. Building and climate change
2. How to use local materials for buildings
3. Building energy label
4. Smart growth
5. Low carbon community design
6. Case study on sustainable urban planning

I'll continue to blog my research findings down the road.

A damaged building under repair

A Tale of Two Countries: Secretary Chu Spoke on Climate Change at Tsinghua University

2009-07-20T10:04:46Z

Two days before Energy Secretary Steven Chu gave a speech at Tsinghua University, the top Chinese science and engineering school where I taught building science 15 years ago, a U.S. Embassy intern sent an email offering seats to the first 100 repliers. A dozen interns in our Beijing office immediately emailed back, trying to grab a seat. Unfortunately, all but one hit the lottery-the tickets went too fast. I could clearly see how disappointed our interns were. Luckily, they all eventually went to listen to Secretary Chu after the university increased the overflow space.

It was not the first time a high-profile U.S. figure had spoken at Tsinghua University-President Clinton and President Bush both did-but it's the first time two Chinese-American secretaries visited China at the same time; Commerce Secretary Gary Locke was also in Beijing at the time. The Chinese student audience showed unusually high excitement. In addition, Secretary Chu is a long-time foreign member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. His fellow Nobel laureate, Dr. C.N. Yang, now a professor at Tsinghua, attended the speech and sat in the first row.

Secretary Chu started his speech by mentioning his close ties to Tsinghua-both of his parents graduated from Tsinghua and then went to MIT. His presentation focused on climate change and urged that the U.S. and China work together to tackle global warming issues. To conclude his speech, he used Martin Luther King's phrase from more than 40 years ago, "We are now faced with the fact, my friends, that tomorrow is today."

During Secretary Chu's visit to China, the U.S. DOE and China's National Energy Administration announced plans to develop a joint research center on clean energy, with an initial pledge of $15 million from both countries. Priority research topics include building energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and clean vehicles.

As a researcher having worked on building energy efficiency in both the U.S. and China for more than 15 years, I feel that the building sector for the first time is receiving overdue respect in climate talks. Although the building sector accounts for almost 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. and 30 percent in China, climate experts appear to be far more interested in such sectors as power generation, industry, transportation, agriculture, etc.

Unlike CCS and clean vehicles, developing innovative technologies is not the most urgent aspect of building energy efficiency. Existing energy efficiency technologies, if fully utilized, can increase building energy efficiency to at least 30 percent in the U.S. and 50 percent in China. In the newly signed U.S.-China Building Efficiency MOU, the two countries will learn from each other's experiences with efficient building technologies.

Building policy incentives and regulatory reform are equally important to the both countries. While the American Clean Energy and Security Act is pushing for a national building code, China has already had in place national building standards and green building standards, with help from NRDC and other U.S. organizations. In addition, China also requires that government-owned buildings and large public buildings install real-time energy monitoring systems; it would probably be an uphill climb for the U.S. to require this. However, in China, building code enforcement is still a big concern, and a market-based incentive mechanism is also missing. NRDC and RESNET are helping China to develop a building-labeling system that enforces building codes, and to foster a market-based energy inspector community.

China is enthusiastic about eco-city initiatives, which the U.S. government will support, according to the MOU. But it still will take time before China achieves net-zero energy building, an ambitious goal for the DOE that targets the year 2020 for residential buildings and 2025 for commercial buildings. China still faces regulatory obstacles to get solar energy connected to the grid. By the end of 2008, only 100 mW solar power capacity was attached to the grid. By the DOE's definition, a net-zero energy building should be able to send extra electricity to the grid and get electricity from the grid when on-site generation is insufficient.

Beijing's High-Polluting Vehicle Phase-Out Plan Seems to be Working

2009-06-19T06:53:22Z

Air quality of Beijing was a focal point both before and during the Olympic Games. After the Olympics, the topic faded out of the media, but Beijing is still working hard to keep the sky blue. According to the Beijing Environment Protection Bureau, from January 1, 2009 to June 9, 2009, 81 percent of the days achieved an air quality of Grade II or better. As a matter of fact, Beijing residents are enjoying the best air quality for the same period of time since year 2000, partly thanks to the city's high-polluting vehicle phase-out plan.

The Ministry of Environment Protection has categorized air quality into five grades. Grade I is the best, with an Air Pollutant Index (API) of less than 50, and Grade II is good, with an index ranging from 51 to 100. High-polluting vehicles are a major source of air pollutants in Beijing. By the end of 2008, the 353,800 yellow-mark cars accounted for only 10 percent of the total cars in Beijing, but emitted half of the total pollutants by vehicles in Beijing.

In addition to the yellow label vehicle phase-out incentives, Beijing has provided discount car loans of up to two years to public service driving contractors who purchase green label cars in 2009, based on the purchase date.

Jan. 1 to June 30, 2009: 2-year discount car loan
Jul. 1 to Sept. 30, 2009: 1.5-year discount car loan
Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2009: 1-year discount car loan

The Beijing Transportation Bureau even gave an example of how a car owner could best benefit from the campaign. If a driving contractor purchased his heavy truck for 300,000 yuan ($43,920) in 2004 and traded in it by June 30, 2009, he would receive 15,000 yuan ($2,196). He would save additional 36,000 yuan ($5,270) on a car loan if he purchased a green-label car of a similar model. The savings would total 51,000 yuan ($7,460), more than one-sixth of the car's value.

Still, the incentive seems unattractive to most owners. It is estimated that to date (June 9, 2009), Beijing has only disbursed incentives to 31,871 yellow-label vehicle owners, close to 10 percent of the stock. But most yellow-label cars have disappeared. It's the "forbidden zone" that makes the difference. Most owners choose to sell their yellow-label cars to secondhand car dealerships, which then sell the cars to the neighboring cities that have less stringent emission regulations. That is, most high-polluting cars are not traded in, but spread around the city.

In addition to the stringent regulations, Beijing continues to add cleaner buses to its public transportation system. Beijing owns 4,000 more natural gas buses than any other city in the world, and will continue to increase that number to 5,000 by 2012.

Beijing also has set a rule that forces each car off the street for one weekday. For example, if its license number ends in 1 or 6, a car can't be on the street on Monday; this keeps 20 percent of cars at home on weekdays. But some would argue that rich people can buy a second car just for use during that one weekday. Beijing has also moved most high-polluting industries out of the area and has increased its forest coverage to 36.5 percent.

A couple of days ago, the Beijing Transportation Commission released a green public transportation initiative for 2009-2015. Some highlights are as follows:

By 2015, Beijing's daily public transportation (buses and subways) capacity will be 25 million passenger-trips, including 15 million by bus and 10 million by subway.
45 percent of passenger-trips in the metro area will be by public transportation.
The city will establish approximately 1,000 bicycle-rental stations, with a total of 50,000 bicycles available for rent. Walk-only and bicycle-only street lanes will be opened across the metro area.
The public-transportation-only lane will be 450 kilometers long.
90 percent of public transportation passengers in the metro area will walk less than 500 meters to the nearest station.

Although the API shows better air quality of Beijing, it should be noted that the API currently only measures the concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), suspended particulates (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3). It was reported that China is considering including suspended particulates (PM2.5), which is more damaging to the respiratory system than PM10, in the API.

My colleague Alex Wang and his team just released a milestone pollution index, PITI (Pollution Information Transparency Index), which monitors how 113 Chinese cities perform in terms of disclosure of pollution information.