An article in Monday’s Orange County Register about the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA), Bus Ridership Drops 20% After Fare Increase, Service Cuts, teaches us some basics about market economics: offer people with limited means the chance to pay more for less, and they’ll more often than not pass up the opportunity. 

While increasing unemployment could certainly play a role in the decline, it’s the fare increases and service cuts we should be focusing on.  As I’ve written earlier, despite rising unemployment and lower gas prices, transit ridership nationally continued to grow over the past year. 

Now I suppose one could conclude that the reason OCTA had a million fewer boardings than this time last year was because all these folks found safer, cheaper and more convenient modes of travel.  Indeed, when he learned that OCTA lost a fifth of its ridership, one Boardmember asked OCTA staff: “Is there a point where maybe a bus system isn’t even necessary?”

Hmm.  Well, I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that increasing the cost of travel and cutting the frequency and range of service does more harm than good. 

And we’ve known this for some time.  More than ten years ago, a study was done to examine the impacts on riders of service reductions on AC Transit, one of the largest bus agencies in America, located in the San Francisco Bay Area.   Like the OCTA case, the service reductions were accompanied by a fare increase.    How did these policies impact riders?

• 43% experienced increased travel costs, an average of $31.35 per week (or a little over $44 these days), 79.9% of which was spent on taxis;
• 59.9% of these added expenses were for people to get to work.  Yes, fare hikes and service cuts also cut wages.
• 8.7% of the added expenses were for kids to get to school.  With unemployment up, school should be easier to attend, not harder.
• 32% of those surveyed had no other form of transportation.

In the final analysis, the report concluded that the $4.8 million annual savings to AC Transit resulted in $48.1 million in added costs to riders.  In addition to the $30 million in estimated added travel costs, that $48.1 million included the value of lost time and lost earnings.  As transit riders are of lower income than average, the pain was even more acute.  We should mention, too, the impacts on local businesses, as purchasing power dried up.

Now this doesn’t mean that OCTA needs to solve this problem all alone.  Far from it.  NRDC has called on leaders in Sacramento and Washington to increase their support for transit, particularly on the operations side (which would help keep fares low and routes in service).   But we would also certainly press OCTA to stay in the business of providing bus service; thousands of people are depending on you (not to mention the environment!).