Earlier during a rare quiet moment I had the pleasure of chatting with a representative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) about the tools needed to predict, understand and adapt to climate change.  

The WMO, for those who may not be familiar with it, is a scientific organization within the United Nations which built the tools to allow meteorologists from around the world share their data and create interconnected, real-time systems that predict the weather every day.   And to provide fullest disclosure, I myself was unaware of the WMO until I spent several years working for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which houses the National Weather Service.

Dr. Avinash Tyagi, the Director of the Climate and Water Department at the WMO, explained that:

        We have had over 100 years to improve and refine the best methods   for hydrologic science.   Naturally, our water management strategies are based on the presumption that whatever happened in the past will happen in the future.  But climate change throws all of our old assumptions about natural systems especially water systems into question.  We can no longer base our assumptions on the past.  There is an immediate need to adapt our management strategies to the changing climate and the new and emerging climate models. 

Unfortunately, according to Dr.  Tyagi, Time is not on our side.

Scientists and Negotiators Agree

The urgency of climate change is a significant challenge, but luckily the opportunity matches the challenge.  More importantly scientists, and negotiators of both the developed and developing states can agree that one key solution lies in utilizing modern geospatial technology to empower communities.

Over the last two days developing countries said that high quality observations (satellite images, rain measurements, stream levels, temperature records and more) are necessary for adaptation.  They called for more funding for the Global Climate Observation System.  And the WMO is working to encourage countries to prioritize climate research and science in their own national budgets.  There is no debate on the value of data and observations to climate adaptation here at the Copenhagen negotiations. 

Making Global Climate Models Useful to You and Me

While we agree in principle the challenge lies in implementation.  Existing climate data can be used to build global and regional models, but the most valuable data still needed at the local level.  And local scientists around the world need to tap into the best  tools, knowledge and methods.  So how can we build local knowledge and capacity?

Globally

At the WMO’s World Climate Conference September 2009, Ministers agreed to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to facilitate collaboration between sectors, nations and scientists.  The GFCS will provide standards for measurement, create guidelines for integration and build capacity.  Ultimately their work shall support early warning systems, predict crop losses, and bring local solutions.

Climate models require data from many sectors, beyond the WMO’s usual partners, and GFCS will have to tackle that challenge.  No small feat since there is a role for data related to fire, weather, soil moisture, water, biodiversity, energy, air quality, storms and more in climate models.

Nationally

At the national level how can we facilitate communication between meteorologists, hydrologists, health specialists, and the coastal managers about the data needed for climate models and adaptation?  Sometimes, if you are lucky, you can bring together the scientific data from a variety of government sectors.   For example, the United States is slated to establish the National Climate Service as part of the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act.  While many countries won’t establish new climate services, with the right level of global and local investment they will be empowered to bring together many agencies, scientists and specialists from different disciplines to strengthen their own climate models. 

Locally

And then you get to the really good news.  Lets say the world’s leaders amaze us here in Copenhagen, make commitments to deep emissions reductions, and put significant short term and long-term money toward adaptation, technology, reducing deforestation and capacity building.  Monies directed to building climate observation knowledge can empower local people with the tools they need to collect data (lake temperature data) and combine it with data from other sectors (rainfall data and indigenous knowledge) and predict local climate impacts (the fate of a local fish critical to food security).  The integrated data can be fed back to the global framework building a more robust model, improving our efforts to adapt to climate change.

On the Ground

While writing this blog and chatting with my colleagues, I learned that the Indigenous Peoples of Africa Coordinating Committee (IPACC) is already using these geospatial information technology tools.  They are using integrated data to map herd movements, predict water shortages and floods and adapt their activities to the changing environmental conditions.  So please allow me to finish this blog by amplifying their message to the COP 15 about adaptation

• All efforts must be made to improve communication between regional, sub-regional and national meteorological agencies and indigenous peoples and vulnerable local communities;
• GEF, UNDP and related funding bodies should support transfer of appropriate geo-spatial information technologies which improve the ability of indigenous peoples and vulnerable local communities to document and promote their knowledge of natural and human adaptation
• Strengthen and support the UNDP Small Project funding of Community-based Adaptation in Africa; Best practices of Community-based and Ecosystem-based Adaptation should be shared and promoted widely.