Energy Bill: Down Payment or Balloon Payment?
Posted August 2, 2007
NRDC and other major environmental organization sent a letter to the House of Representatives today urging members to support energy legislation that will come to the floor on Friday because it begins to move America’s energy policy in a new direction that focuses on energy efficiency and clean energy sources. The letter also urges Representatives to support an amendment to require power companies to get 15% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020. If enacted the legislation would slow the growth of global warming pollution and set the stage for debate on comprehensive global warming legislation in the Fall.
So how does the current energy bill stack up against the emission reductions we need to avert the worst consequences of global warming?
Based on an analysis by WRI, we need to reduce cumulative emissions between 2010 and 2030 by 64.3 billion tonnes of CO2 to be on a path that stabilizes the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million.
ACEEE's latest analysis of the efficiency provisions estimates cumulative savings of 6 billion tons over this period. Chairman Dingell claimed 8.6 billion tonnes in his op/ed in the Washington Post today. These numbers represent 9-13 percent of the reduction we need.
UCS estimates that the Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) provision would save 180 million tons in 2020. Assuming this is the average savings for 2010-2030 the cumulative savings would be 3.6 billion tonnes. This would bring total savings to 15% to 19% of what is needed.
Adding the Senate Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) provision would increase cumulative savings by about 4.4 billion tonnes according to a calculation by Luke Tonachel of NRDC. This would bring total cumulative savings to 14 - 16.6 billion tonnes, or 22% to 26% of what is needed.
So, if the final energy bill has CAFE and RES it would represent a legitimate down payment on a conventional loan. Otherwise we are talking about the sub-prime market. And we can already see the problems that's causing.
