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Study: Stronger Winds Blowing in Wyoming Can Save Money in California

Carl Zichella

Posted January 31, 2013 in Curbing Pollution, Green Enterprise, Moving Beyond Oil

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 The wind blows stronger in Wyoming than in California and a new study concludes that incorporating its power into the Golden State’s electricity system will produce significant financial and environmental benefits for Californians and the environment.

Specifically, the University of Wyoming analysis found that integrating the wind energy generated hundreds of miles away into California’s bulk electrical grid operated primarily by the California Independent System Operator Corporation will reduce system volatility and the need for standby gas-fired generation to supplement clean, renewable energy.

This could produce millions of dollars in annual savings for utilities (and their customers) while preventing almost 700,000 tons of carbon pollution, according to the report.

It also would help California meet – and exceed -- its Renewables Portfolio Standard requirement of having 33 percent of utility electricity sales coming from clean, renewable sources by 2020, the report said. The RPS, one of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy programs, mandates enough clean energy to power nearly 9 million homes by 2020, but also set intermediate targets of 20 percent for 2011-2013 and 25 percent by 2014-2016.

The California-Wyoming wind diversity study, which was conducted by the university’s Wind Energy Research Center and commissioned by the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority, included an analysis of atmospheric data that reconfirmed Wyoming’s wind resources are stronger than those in California (generating in excess of 40 percent of the time) and greatest in the late afternoon and early evening -- the period when California most needs power.

However, this is also the time when solar supplies are declining so the California ISO system typically ramps up its “dispatchable” natural gas-fired generation to compensate, which also generally reflects the highest “peak power” pricing.

The UW researchers analyzed a scenario with 6,000 megawatts of California wind with a 25 percent capacity factor, a scenario requiring the California ISO to use the dispatchable natural gas-fired generation to serve the customer load. Researchers then looked at what would happen when combining 3,000 megawatts of California wind with 3,000 megawatts of Wyoming wind and found it would mitigate the need for back-up generation.

The analysis says that if the avoided generation is valued at $50 for megawatts per hour, the savings would total almost $100 million a year and also lead to lower emissions on the order of approximately 700,000 annual tons of carbon dioxide pollution.

Getting Wyoming’s wind energy to California  could happen with completion of one or both of two transmission projects under development. One of them, the 725-mile TransWest Express Transmission Project between south-central Wyoming and the California ISO connections at Marketplace Hub in the Eldorado Valley near Boulder City, Nev., would offer 3,000 megawatts of capacity. It also is one of seven projects chosen by the federal government’s Rapid Response Team for Transmission for streamlined permitting, putting it into service by 2017 – ahead of the Renewables Portfolio Standard deadline.  This line plans to maximize the use of existing corridors  and rights of way along its route .

The other is the Zephyr Transmission Project, which could deliver as much as 3,000 megawatts of capacity to California via the Eldorado Valley.  It would begin in eastern Wyoming. It is not projected to go into service until 2020.

The wind diversity analysis will be formally presented next month at the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority’s winter board meeting, but its board already has authorized another study that will compare actual minute-by-minute multi-year wind data for both states.

Meeting the climate challenge will require massive amounts of renewable power and heroic levels of energy efficiency and demand side programs to make the grid more efficient.  But projects like these have their place too: to lower costs and ease the reliable addition of renewable power as we decarbonize our economy and modernize and make our transmission system more flexible.

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Comments

Dave ModisetteFeb 1 2013 03:18 PM

Would this Wyoming Wind meet the requirements for "Bucket 1" or not?

Carl ZichellaFeb 1 2013 05:52 PM

Yes, bucket 1 would apply.

Nick AbramsFeb 1 2013 06:57 PM

1. Your post strongly parallels articles that have appeared in a number of Wyoming and Wind Industry publications that are sympathetic to Anshutz/PCW.

2. California IOU's are long on renewables and will remain so even if BSE projects do not materilze. They have no real need for wind power that is coming from out of state, especially considering in state unemployment and the price of PV and natural gas.

3. This analysis assumes a PTC benifit which will likely expire (again) at the end of this year (2013). Unfortunately I think the wind industry cashed in its last political chip for the useless 1 yr extension - Thanks Denise Bode.

4. Neither of the "developers" behind TWE and Zephyr have ever actually developed, financed, constructed, nor opperated a wind or transmission project, and there is a reason why expereinced project developers (Iberdrola, Horizon, Invenergy, TransCanada, BP, etc.) have exited the WY-CA wind play.

5. Are you on the Anshutz (aka Power Company of Wyoming) payroll like everyone else propping up the WY-CA wind fantasies?

Carl ZichellaFeb 1 2013 07:14 PM

Nick:

1. I have been tracking this work for a long time and the value proposition of taking advantage of uncorrelated western regional variability, not just from Wyoming is very real. Wyoming wind has a very high capacity factor (better than many gas plants) ands as the study shows has a generation profile that is very beneficial to other states, including California and Colorado.

2. California could slash renewable integration costs and the need for fossil reserves for balancing by taking advantage of regional geographic and temporal diversity that is not available to them now. This is well understood and not controversial.

3. Drastically slashing CO2 means going beyond (far beyond) an arbitrary 33% goal for renewables. Like it or not, large scale projects are needed. The recent NREL study on attaining an 80% renewable penetration rate by 2050 underscores the need for more regional coordination in procurement and grid operation. In fact it posits we need to rely on geographic diversity to attain this goal among many other improvements in grid operational efficiency.

4. Your crystal ball on the future of the PTC is far better than anyone I know. Moreover, the wind industry is not planning to need it forever as is, in my opinion, appropriate.

Environmental EngineerFeb 1 2013 11:30 PM

"Wyoming wind has a very high capacity factor (better than many gas plants)..." Please provide a citation for this statement. Frankly, I think you're cherry picking, or not comparing apples to apples. (To use a fruit analogy...)

I couldn't find the "new study" to read at the UW research center web site.. You should provide a link to it.

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