A Different Kind of Demand Problem

Rising gasoline prices are driven by a demand issue, not a supply problem. But gas prices also influence the demand for different types of transportation. In particular, when gas prices go up, people drive less and use public transit more often.

So if gas prices continue to rise even beyond the record levels they hit in the summer of 2008 (when driving also dropped substantially), our public transportation network is going to see quite a bit more use.

How much more? The American Public Transportation Association took a stab at answering this very question. A report released by APTA yesterday found that [emphasis mine]:

if regular gas prices reach $4 a gallon across the nation, as many experts have forecasted, an additional 670 million passenger trips could be expected, resulting in more than 10.8 billion trips per year. If pump prices jump to $5 a gallon, the report predicts an additional 1.5 billion passenger trips can be expected, resulting in more than 11.6 billion trips per year. And if prices were to soar to $6 a gallon, expectations go as high as an additional 2.7 billion passenger trips, resulting in more than 12.9 billion trips per year.

But not so fast - here's the rub. As state and local budgets have strained under the weight of the recession, almost every transit agency across the country has been forced to cut service, raise fares, or both.

As the Transportation for America report Stranded at the Station documented, this has left millions of Americans without a transportation option they depend on. It's also resulted in thousands of lost jobs in the transit industry. Transportation for America has been mapping these cuts, showing their starting scope:

And as state and local budgets continue to take their lumps, more cuts are being considered. This calls into question whether transit agencies will be able to serve all these additional passengers safely and efficiently. 

There's not much we can do about the rising price of gas. But there is plenty that we can do to accommodate the millions of potential new riders who could come depend on public transportation to get to work, school, or just across town for dinner or to pick up the dry cleaning. It's up to us - and Congress - to choose not to leave them stranded.

Header image by Oran Viriyincy used under a Creative Commons license.