Oil Spill: The Plain Numbers
Posted May 28, 2010 in Curbing Pollution, Moving Beyond Oil, The Media and the Environment
Yesterday the government "spill rate team" announced preliminary estimates of the rate at which oil has been spewing into the Gulf of Mexico for the last month.
Of course, as with most things associated with the spill, the numbers were kind of confusing (daily rate in barrels vs. daily rate in gallons vs. total magnitude of spill etc). To clear this up, I pulled numbers from Kate Sheppard's recent Mother Jones blog post on the topic and cross referenced it with numbers from CNN News Wire.
Here are the basics:
IN BARRELS
Full range of government estimates of the rate of spillage ran from 11,000 barrels/day to 25,000 barrels/day.
BUT the government clarified that the most likely estimate is that the spill rate has been between 12,000 barrels/day to 19,000 barrels/day.
IN GALLONS (1 barrel=42 US gallons; spill total assuming 37 days):
11,000 Barrels (lowest of the low)= 462,000 gal/day * 37 days
= 17Million gallons LOWEST POSSIBLE spill total
12,000 Barrels (lowest likely spill rate)= 504,000 gal/day * 37 days
= 18.6Million gallons LOWEST LIKELY spill total
19,000 Barrels (highest likely spill rate)= 798,000 gal/day *37 days
=29.5Million gallons HIGHEST LIKELY spill total
25,000 Barrels (highest of the estimates)= 1.05 Mil gal/day * 37 days
= 38.85Million gallons HIGHEST ESTIMATED spill total
For your reference: Exxon Valdez spilled 11 Million gallons of oil.
If you want to compare... the largest spills in human history (according to EnviroWonk) can be found here. Notably #10 was 40 Million gallons of oil spilled off Nova Scotia in 1988... Sadly, we may be approaching that number if the largest estimates for rate of spill are correct...
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Comments
Florence Montgomery — May 28 2010 09:29 PM
What can we do as the public to help? This is an absolute tragedy and people should be outraged. And know matter how much anyone is sued it will never reverse the damage to the environment
Mr. Anonymous — May 28 2010 10:16 PM
This is a horrible tragedy not only for those who lost their lives, the people who rely on the rich ecosystems in the region to support their families, and even the people who rely on the oil producing industry along the gulf coast to support their families. But as most things go, it has become political. Noone wants to admit responsibility or moreover be responsible for poor decision making.
I work closely with all three major powers associated with this incident. And to say that this shouldn't have happened is an understatement. Here is a timeline of events:
1) Cameron, manufacturer of the Blowout preventer, informed BP that any modifications made would void the engineered design and possibly lead to a major malfunction.
2) With the sign-off of MMS, Mineral Management Service (US Government Agency), BP purchased the BOP with the intent of making modifications to the design.
3) The BOP fails a negative pressure test and again MMS signs-off.
4) The BOP fails another hydraulic test 2 days before the accident and after it was modified from its original design.
5) 11 people are killed and countless wildlife. Plus the strain on families trying to earn a meager living in the fishing industry.
6) Everyone starts pointing fingers.....
The way I see it is that BP knew they shouldn't do it but with MMS say so they went ahead and hoped everything would be ok.
I personally think MMS should be held responsible just as much as BP. Noone is talking about this issue though. I have talked with people from both companies.
An unmodified BOP would have never failed, and a government clerk who is not an engineer should not be allowed to make a decision based on cost reduction with an uninformed purchasing agent from BP.
That is what should be investigated.
Our countries future hangs in the balance in situations like this. Dependance on foreign countries for oil ecomes only worse. While I support cleaning up the environment and taking care of the Earth that gives us so much, I don't think that one solutions is THE solution. We should wean ourselves off Oil and other polluting technologies but not at the risk of our national security.
The USA as we stand now are like the heroin addict who is getting is hookup from some third world country. Now I'm not saying it is better to get my hookup from my own country but I DO think that instead of doing the heroin we should be put into rehab and given a new drug at the end of treatment. Who knows! If we support R&D as much as we support the oil companies, maybe someone will invent a fusion reactor that is safe and Helium-3 will be the new drug that heals us all....
Toby — May 28 2010 11:49 PM
70,000 / 86.000 barrels per day.
Obama and BP won't be able to hide the toxic continent, that is forming in the Gulf, for too much longer.
carol — May 29 2010 09:16 AM
Spill implies a finite amount that ends. We should call it something else...that said, great work quantifying and educating
Margo — May 29 2010 01:16 PM
Can anyone comment on the science behind oil-eating bacteria? Is it already too late for bioremediation?
Courtney Hamilton — Jun 1 2010 02:47 PM
Hi Florence, I think that as a group and as individuals we need to make sure something like this doesn't happen again: that means reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, supporting clean energy legislation and supporting government investments in clean tech (wind and sunlight don't spill).
If you're looking for something more tangible to pursue as well, learn if there are ways to volunteer near you, or support local organizations via groups like the Gulf Coast Fund http://gulfcoastfund.org/
Courtney Hamilton — Jun 1 2010 02:48 PM
we'd love any suggestions that you have! we agree, this is much bigger than a spill, but haven't yet been able to find a word that better describes the disaster that is unfolding... let us know!
Peter Suide III — Jun 3 2010 07:39 AM
Why ahve we heard nothing about the Costner machine 'water therapy'..??