The Next Decade Of Offshore Wind
Posted December 18, 2009 in Green Enterprise, Moving Beyond Oil
Emerging Energy Research, EER released a study today on the next decade of progress for the global offshore wind industry. The global installed base is expected to grow to nearly 45GW in 2020. Among other things, this study exhibits the phases of offshore market development:
Phase 1: 1997-2007
Intitial pilots, ramp up to industrial scale wind farms offshore
Phase 2: 2008-2013
Steady deployment of 100MW + farms using 4 MW+ turbines
Phase 3: 2014-2020
Continued expansion to exponentially larger scale projects, greater than 400 MW
Of particular note is the progress in Asia and North America. Currently, these regions are looking aggressively to Europe for cost benchmarking and advanced technology of offshore renewables. It is expected that between 2010 and 2020, these two regions will contribute approximately 25% of the total new offshore wind capacity installed-globally.
The study highlights cost, indicating that cost and learning curves do remain steep with no template project. This has forced the industry to move beyond the prototype model in an attempt to fully capture greater economies of scale with increased project standardization of dimensions and cost.
Europe's leadership in offshore wind deployment can undoubtedly be attributed to progressive policies that have enabled them to create incentives and manageable permitting procedures. This has enabled firms to finance these projects even if their costs vary widely based on specific sites. "With over 30 GW in the pipeline at different development stages and over 3.2 GW under construction, the European offshore wind market is focused on addressing specific, economic, technical and construction risks associated with the final phase of several projects."
"Offshore is still very much a European industry led by the UK and followed by Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark," says Sala de Vedruna. EER expects Asia to tap its offshore markets in 2014, led by China and Korea. In North America, test projects in the US (Deepwater Wind) and Canada (NaiKun) may come to fruition by 2012, with over 6 GW projected by 2020, according to EER.
