Michael Zhang in our Beijing office put together the following analysis of recent announcements in China:

At a presentation of the Government Work Report to the NPC and the CPPCC, Premier Wen Jiabao mentioned two figures that environmental analysts in China have been keenly awaiting. Data for the first half of 2008 on chemical oxygen demand (COD), a measure of water pollution, and sulfur dioxide (SO2) was released several months ago. Many experts predicted that the year-end data would arrive in early March.

According to the Premier, COD levels and sulfur dioxide levels were down 4.42 percent and 5.95 percent respectively for 2008.  And yesterday the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) announced 2008 year-end reductions for COD of 6.61% and for sulfur dioxide of 8.95% (both of off 2005 levels).  [Editor's Note: By our calculations these two announcements are not consistent with each other.  We're running the numbers now and will have more to come.]

So how does this stack up against China's own goals? The 11th Five-Year plan sets a target of 10% reduction in both COD and SO2 levels from 2005 figures by 2010. Last February, Zhou Shengxian, the head of the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), also announced interim targets for 2008: a 5 percent decrease for COD and a 6 percent decrease for SO2 from 2005 baseline figures by the end of 2008.  So, if the numbers are correct, it looks as if China has hit its 2008 interim targets for COD and SO2.

The dramatic reductions in energy use and in production generally in 4th quarter 2008 would have contributed significantly to the 2008 reductions in both of these metrics.

See our bilingual (English and Chinese) blog dedicated to discussion of China's environmental law, policy and the power of the people at http://www.greenlaw.org.cn.