I am thrilled to announce the findings of a groundbreaking energy study that shows the HydroAisen mega-dam project is completely unnecessary!  Today in Santiago, the Patagonia Defense Council, of which NRDC is a member, will launch an energy study,  ¿Se Necesitan Represas en La Patagonia? Un Análisis del Futuro Energético Chileno (Are Dams Necessary in Patagonia? An Analysis of Chile's Energy Future), which will help further the debate about Chile's energy future.  The timing could not be better as the Presidential candidates continue to vie for popularity among a growing majority of Chileans who disapprove of HydroAisen. 

This study is a momentous achievement as we have been collaborating with Chilean partner organizations to protect Patagonia and promote sustainable energy policies in Chile for the past few years.  When we first got involved in 2006, the HydroAisen project -- five massive hydroelectric dams generating 2,750 MW of power and 18,430 GWh/year of electricity on two of Chile's wildest rivers in the Patagonia region -- was framed as Chile's only opportunity to ensure that Chile economy would continue to grow and that there would be enough energy to supply Chile's growing demands.  However, we never believed that destroying Patagonia would be the only way to satiate Chile's energy requirements.  I am glad that we trusted our instinct and looked at the proposal with a critical eye as we were correct. 

Last August a study was launched that took a hard look at Chile's energy matrix.  This study found that renewable energy and energy efficiency should be considered a viable and important resource to supplying Chile's energy.  Since this study's publication, the Environmental Review Assessment for the HydroAisen proposal was highly criticized and sent back for revisions; and, the Patagonia Defense Council recognized that in fact it could be proven that building destructive, massive hydroelectric dams are unnecessary considering Chile's other feasible and economically competitive opportunities. 

Today, this new technical analysis, Are Dams Necessary in Patagonia? An Analysis of Chile's Energy Future, carried out by Chilean and Canadian energy experts definitively articulates that HydroAisen is completely uncalled for and superfluous.  The study provides a thorough investigation of Chile's emerging portfolio of energy projects through 2025 -- Chile's existing energy profile, future projects that are already approved, and future supply and demand trends.  Here are the study's key findings:

1.  Even using conservative "Business as Usual" models, HydroAisen's output will be unneeded.  By 2025, there will be more than enough energy generated between the projects currently under construction and already approved for development to supply all of Chile's demands without HydroAisen, and without taking any extra energy efficiency or renewable energy measures.

• By the year 2025, Chile will require 22,736 MW and 105,560 GWh/year according to a business-as-usual scenario. 
• Considering only those projects currently approved by Chile's National Environmental Commission, there will be 23,143 MW and 124,626 GWh/year.
• According to a more updated scenario, Chile will only require 18,452 MW
• In either the "business-as-usual" scenario or the more updated one, integrating energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources into the model results in a 23% supply surplus over the projected demand.

2.  Chile's predicted energy demand growth published in April 2008 has decreased significantly due to the global economic recession. Before 2008, when the country experienced a robust economy, energy demand was estimated to grow at rates of 5.5% to 6.5% annually until 2025.  Since the onset of the recession, many of Chile's key industries, such as mining and construction, have suffered, negatively affecting these rates.  Chile's National Energy Commission has even readjusted its prediction for 2009 to a 2.1% growth from 4.7%.  The result in the adjusted forecast is a reduction in the need for installed power by 4,000 MW.

3.  The global recession provides a three-year window of opportunity during which Chile can reorient its entire national energy portfolio, enhancing its energy security, technological capital, and economic efficiency and environmental responsibility.  Based on an energy study published in July 2008,* Chile possesses great potential in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.  This 2009 analysis also finds that Chile's geography is particularly well-suited for solar and geothermal exploration.  The results show that if measures are enacted soon to increase energy efficiency, 40% of the approved coal projects can be eliminated from Chile's future energy matrix.  It also illustrates that if Chile invests in energy efficiency and renewable technologies now, the energy demand forecast for 2025 decreases to just 18,452 MW.

• There are 2,719 MW and 12,799 GWh/year associated with renewable energy projects, mainly geothermal, biomass, wind, concentrated solar and photovoltaic energy
• There are 3,041 MW and 19,817 GWh/year of identified opportunities in energy efficiency that are economically viable.

4.      The successful implementation of efficiency and renewable technologies will depend on government policies and programs.  The report highlights several specific measures that the government can take to increase their competitiveness in the market, including the need to increase the Renewable Energy Standard via Public Law 20.257 from 10% to 25% in 2025.  It also encourages developing and implementing minimum energy efficiency standards, a framework for integrated planning and resource development, and a plan to modernize the electric grid.

5.  The costs of investing in HydroAisen are far greater than investing in a diverse portfolio of efficiency and renewable energy projects.  In a life cycle analysis of the total costs, energy efficiency and renewable energy are more competitive than the dams and other conventional forms of energy.  Moreover, the assertion that the only plausible choices are the HydroAisen project and coal fired plants, which are both environmentally harmful, is false.  The better solution is to diversify Chile's energy matrix with economically viable energy efficient practices and renewable energy projects.

Therefore, there is no need for the HydroAisen dam project to satiate Chile's energy demands. 

The Are Dams Necessary in Patagonia? An Analysis of Chile's Energy Future study was carried out by Stephen Hall, an energy consultant from Canada with extensive experience in Chile, and Professor Roberto Roman of the University of Chile, a leading expert on renewable energy, and his team.  The study was overseen and financially supported by the Patagonia Defense Council.  NRDC and the Patagonia Foundation also provided funding for the study.